Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New

Startups chase the new

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New frameworks.

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50% of startups die between years 2 and 5.

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on trends

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Survival is evidence

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1964. Lindy's Deli.

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the longer you'll last.

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The Lindy Effect.

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For perishable things,

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Humans age.

[{"selector":"#anim-1f59c7bf-02d9-4119-a1bd-ed73cb59cc45","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6fc1b74f-a4ad-4668-ab40-93be27f4a205","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 164.21454%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7228e09a-79f0-41fa-b0c6-76d28d549c11","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-19daf0c6-6c9d-413b-80ff-e9bcf9a9f90a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -181.45593%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4a52ffda-2647-4073-a1c6-5160626cb3f0","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7a4d9028-5bfa-42b6-97cf-9c3d0b123dbe","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":1750,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9a580714-cfff-400b-a599-426997e631e9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":3000,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-210823f3-5c53-4a3f-a39b-94dc3ca7072a","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":4250,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e91b58a5-a3d7-4b3f-821c-d1d78d7a385a","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

For non-perishables — ideas, technologies, brands —

[{"selector":"#anim-0318da1d-c328-43ab-ae73-0d819fa45a76 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(26.11318939695495%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":3000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-683bf4b0-6232-40e9-96d4-ca941f8dbf1f","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-100%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c8c504c5-9f0b-4cb3-98b4-6fbdfee316f1","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-30dfca3e-37c8-4503-a01b-cbeebe4810e4","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2f223081-a840-4ac0-beda-a6d7840043bd","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-aab3bf81-e7c5-4d68-96ab-ab9cfac916ce","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":3000,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-92c0576a-a3fd-4324-b454-5b6e300741a6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0fac8fed-9e1b-4a31-8cf9-6f9599c536cd","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 106.63494%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b05e4c24-4b88-4562-bead-27d52f1ab169","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-55ccf02b-e358-4aed-9b5e-6bd89fdbb6f3","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-96.61018%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-58aaeff0-4edc-42ce-84af-579fcd02dee5","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9fecab33-2489-4ba3-a8dd-a0c1a4f39ff5","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(143.05084%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Ideas spread.

[{"selector":"#anim-be704e6d-b536-4f5c-bd16-b54fd5b13b9d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-364bff03-334e-45b7-ba6a-90c2c4160761","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e3c81b66-6db0-45c7-9c2a-9e2082b0ce4f","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 160.4074%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4c452f07-7af8-41ca-bb24-19915eebe766","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0c1fd2ae-b031-4676-8702-040802ba3920","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -177.07407%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-43eb729e-8a09-4b04-acda-f2c7d8132b4b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f1cd0398-d661-40c8-8571-1997cbf78356","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":1750,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9fb3e55d-1144-45bf-a822-0570e0f6e249","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":3000,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7149d01a-52b5-424f-85c2-0d6bd7e008cd","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":4250,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Expect 40 more.

[{"selector":"#anim-46ba5989-25b7-43b3-afff-d7a477f07f12","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ceed20ec-09ce-4259-8343-679614f79aae","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 115.05848%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b7f90b2c-9c4a-4079-91de-6f924ecf8389","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-aa446c76-8549-4741-ae97-282f817666cc","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -124.53216%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-edcea274-4195-4aa0-a7dd-091fe9c98640","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(150.00001%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c76bf7fd-edbc-404b-b89b-b7890a1b1e2b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-213d6418-510f-4d40-a9f4-c88dd3f56760","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4ea1e30a-c682-45cf-bb03-86b0f83a2a42","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-148.09524%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7a060e0c-a01c-47e2-80e8-4d9c0be3e416","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8d0db5a7-e419-4473-8426-289c6b78f501","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-952c9028-6d7c-4881-ab82-f5b29f5ac473","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":750,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Wait and watch.

[{"selector":"#anim-343df576-5fd8-4454-a5d1-4220ee3d2381","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f7eb1e5a-cfb9-41bc-85b8-e7bcd630300a","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 115.05848%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2fb30cbd-2fa9-412d-98ee-102127ec7032","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-30d58494-278c-4074-84bc-9429c743cb81","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, -124.53216%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9ab1d636-ee3b-4650-8628-325b50c7b07b","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(150.00001%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6218a920-fcc8-4837-944d-497a18600587","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-320cd85e-df73-4379-b20c-03c98f5d6ee2","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e062070d-1b20-4375-aac9-75bc89116430","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-148.09524%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-9ee7aff0-2ad9-4af7-bf8c-6b7f8873c661","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5bbc1dc7-ddbd-4ce4-b6e5-0774b0d0fb6e","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.15)","scale(1)"]},"delay":2250,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7287e90d-c551-4b06-9595-af9cf86154e6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":750,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

Still default.

[{"selector":"#anim-198ad0ca-4a5b-49f6-bb58-4c2e5b118886","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":300,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-6c0b844c-5570-40f0-8f6a-2e9774ceb6ea","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-159.25926%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":300,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-29fbda36-657a-4ef9-8c3b-97f7354c3c2e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":500,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ef76264e-280c-447a-8a87-1181aa32c2ab","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-125.53192%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":500,"duration":750,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5643ab1a-f0fc-463f-84ec-c4c247e1d236","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":5500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-92c00ce4-eb2b-4b9b-a381-e26be489e8a8","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":5500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bca990c0-99d3-4ac6-8d6b-3ef36bd48ece","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":4250,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-aab08064-2fbc-4d7a-9461-f18323c72e36","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":4250,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-5a81b104-c93d-42bc-acce-6dc055504e6d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":500,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-821e4a92-6974-4e6c-b4f2-b25175aa5224","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(107.27272%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":500,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2386f5da-d41a-4d6e-a6a6-0dab9d6e4a62","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":1500,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c50a9dea-c5a3-4056-89ed-b5c4117a290e","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(107.27272%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":1500,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a9e7374f-6098-4b9b-b265-80a5189183b9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":2500,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-85566a6d-7cf1-44e4-a198-40dfb02f8e14","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(107.27272%, 0px, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":2500,"duration":500,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Scribbled Underline Arrow

Brief lives.

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What do we learn?

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Survival is the

[{"selector":"#anim-29435e76-f477-48e7-8f34-8566efdd45e0","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":6750,"duration":250,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2de489c7-315e-4e81-8a67-c3180a205fb2","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":6750,"duration":250,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bea987bc-b057-4d55-b7b8-0e692114823f","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-509f1174-43d5-4594-9f39-bb80ab48435b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":8000,"duration":250,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-2e8d208a-d4c8-473b-8617-17a9b830dfe8","keyframes":{"transform":["scale(0.3333333333333333)","scale(1)"]},"delay":8000,"duration":250,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] [{"selector":"#anim-d6aede9c-b4b0-4c86-98f5-bb7c23a7f30b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":1750,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-bc3f9943-04df-4d79-a178-6d0753cb6a0e","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":3000,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-716b9ccc-df7d-466d-8ed4-02fa084f5717","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":4250,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-a14062e7-563c-4520-b75e-8e97c7cf75b5","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":5500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-682bf66f-7e14-45ee-b53f-f95a4174faac","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":9500,"duration":0,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}]

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Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New

The 1964 mental model for separating business value from modern hype.

Why Startups Need to Understand the Lindy Effect —

Startups chase the new

The Problem

New frameworks.

New growth hacks.

New strat- egies.

New trend

50% of startups die between years 2 and 5.

years 2 and 5.

[1]

startups

die

between

50% of

on trends

that don't last.

They rely

Why?

Why?

Survival is evidence

The Idea

1964. Lindy's Deli.

Broadway comedians...

noticed a pattern.

the longer you'll last.

the longer you'll last.

The longer you last,

The Lindy Effect.

Taleb named it

Taleb named it

The Lindy Effect.

For perishable things,

age means death.

Humans age.

Machines break.

Perishable things

die with time.

For non-perishables — ideas, technologies, brands —

age means strength.

Ideas spread.

Technologies adapt.

Non-perishable things

strengthen with time.

Expect 40 more.

Expect 40 more.

A book in print for 40 years?

Wait and watch.

Wait and watch.

The one that just became a bestseller?

Still default.

Decades old.

Email.

Spread-sheet.

PC.

Brief lives.

Big noise.

Segway.

Quibi.

HD-DVD.

What do we learn?

The Takeaway

Survival is the

We Learn That

strongest signal.

New is risky.

Old is tested.

Build on what

time has kept.

- Keep upskilling.

leanupskill.com

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