Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New
Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New
The 1964 mental model for separating business value from modern hype.
Why Startups Need to Understand
the Lindy Effect
—
Startups chase the new
The Problem
New frameworks.
New growth hacks.
New strat-
egies.
New trend
50% of startups die
between years 2 and 5.
years 2 and 5.
[1]
startups
die
between
50% of
on trends
that don't last.
They rely
Why?
Why?
Survival is evidence
The
Idea
1964. Lindy's Deli.
Broadway comedians...
noticed a pattern.
the
longer you'll last.
the
longer you'll last.
The
longer you last,
White Dotted Arrow
The
Lindy Effect.
Taleb named it
Taleb named it
The
Lindy Effect.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb / Wikipedia
For perishable things,
age
means death.
Humans age.
Machines break.
Perishable things
die with time.
For non-perishables — ideas, technologies, brands —
age means strength.
Ideas spread.
Technologies adapt.
Non-perishable things
strengthen with time.
Expect 40 more.
Expect 40 more.
A book in print for 40 years?
Wait and watch.
Wait and watch.
The one that
just became
a bestseller?
Scribbled Underline
Still default.
Decades old.
Arrow
Email.
Spread-sheet.
PC.
Scribbled Underline
Brief lives.
Big noise.
Arrow
Segway.
Quibi.
HD-DVD.
What do we learn?
The Takeaway
Survival is the
We Learn That
strongest signal.
New is risky.
Old is tested.
Build on what
time has kept.
- Keep upskilling.
Report an
Error
Terms of Service
Causes We Support
leanupskill.com
For more visual stories on Business, UX, Growth and Product Management, visit